Forecast of near-term influenza activity

• Post By: 汉青
• Date: 2019-11-21
• Category: Clinical Reflections

I have made disease predictions for this year in the first half of the year. According to the current luck, the period from 2019-11-12 to 2020-01-20 is the end of the year of Jihai, which belongs to the Shaoyang phase of fire plus the cold water of the sun. Water and fire are inverse, and fire and earth are in harmony. There will be warmth and severity, indicating that the spread of febrile and venereal diseases may occur.

After detailed calculations, high-intensity influenza activity will not occur in November. An epidemic of fever may occur from south to north starting in mid-to-late December, manifesting as high fever, sore throat, diarrhea, and bleeding. It will gradually weaken after mid-January, and there will no longer be a large-scale epidemic of the disease.

Generally speaking, there should not be large-scale and high-intensity influenza activities like last year in this quarter. Colds in this quarter are mainly characterized by heat symptoms, so the liver should be soothed, heat-clearing, relieving the surface, and the spleen should be strengthened. If a plague occurs, detoxification should be the main priority, and spleen strengthening should be the supplement. Remember to take care of the central soil as the most important thing.

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我已于上半年做出今年的疾病预测，根据现在的运气情况，2019-11-12到2020-01-20处于己亥年的终之气，属于少阳相火加临太阳寒水，水火为逆，火土相得，会发生温厉，表明可能会发生热性病的传播。

    经过详细测算，11月不会发生高强度流感活动，12月中下旬开始可能会从南向北出现热病的流行，表现为高热、咽痛、腹泻、出血，至1月中旬后逐步减弱，不会再发生疾病的大规模流行。

    总的来说，本季度应该不会发生去年那样大规模高强度的流感活动，本季度的感冒主要表现为热象，应当疏肝清热解表，兼以健脾。如若发生瘟疫，应当解毒为主，健脾为辅，切记顾护中土为要。