How to Take Twenty Prevention and Control Measures

The Notice on Optimizing Prevention and Control Measures promulgated by this year’s Double Eleven requires that for close contacts, the management measures of “7 days of centralized isolation + 3 days of home health monitoring” will be adjusted to “5 days of centralized isolation + 3 days of home isolation.” During this period, code management will be carried out and no going out will be allowed; close contacts will be determined promptly and accurately, and no further determination of close contacts’ contacts will be made. The risk areas will be adjusted from the three categories of “high, medium, and low” to two categories of “high and low,” minimizing the number of people under control. In areas where no epidemic has occurred, nucleic acid testing for risk positions and key personnel must be carried out strictly in accordance with the scope determined by the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan, and the scope of nucleic acid testing must not be expanded.

These twenty measures have been widely interpreted by society as a move toward reopening or “lying flat.” That is incorrect.

After the new regulations were introduced, they actually created a new situation in which prevention and control appeared relaxed at first but would tighten later. It would be very difficult to reduce infection numbers back to the levels seen in the latter half of 2020.

As is well known, the BF.5 variant has a very high R₀ value, indicating strong transmissibility, and most transmissions are stealthy. If the general public does not take personal protection seriously, they are highly vulnerable to infection. This relies entirely on individual self-discipline.

After the implementation of the twenty measures, since a considerable number of people who had been under inappropriate restrictions were released, this actually reserved medical capacity in advance for a potentially larger-scale infection that might occur later. What I mean by a “larger-scale infection” here is not the early Wuhan situation, nor this year’s Hong Kong, but rather something like this year’s Shanghai. I personally predict that one week later, the average daily infection number per province will be around one thousand. If local authorities fully understand the policies from above, the existing Fangcang hospitals across the country should be fully capable of handling the impact of this wave of infections.

The next step of optimization will depend on the viral mutation situation and actual observations over the next two months. If the current trend of the dominant strain continues, with the vast majority being asymptomatic cases that essentially require no treatment, and if it is confirmed that there are no long-COVID sequelae, the next step could very well involve managing the disease as a Class B infectious disease.

Of course, traditional Chinese medicine has played a very important role here. We are about to publish some evidence-based medical findings showing that TCM interventions have significant efficacy in the recovery phase of COVID-19 compared with conventional Western medicine rehabilitation protocols. Placing hope in TCM for ending the pandemic is not a bad choice at all.

中文原文 / Chinese Original